Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.316903 22.036636 23.890690 26.047842 28.500973 31.218589 34.477349
2025-09-21 17.410049 19.739629 22.423412 25.781710 29.926345 34.949116 41.616981
2025-09-28 16.023579 18.841461 22.273450 26.850164 32.937674 40.982076 52.836309
2025-10-05 14.507444 17.523555 21.353565 26.719852 34.302642 45.084681 62.533763
2025-10-12 13.357613 16.494543 20.618663 26.646342 35.630995 49.296583 73.517703
2025-10-19 12.578493 15.843230 20.272899 27.006820 37.571773 54.756821 88.273888
2025-10-26 11.780497 15.074060 19.657670 26.854440 38.644485 58.982120 102.306655
2025-11-02 11.058595 14.339080 19.003670 26.534500 39.351546 62.675100 116.736637
2025-11-09 10.514447 13.807010 18.586540 26.515930 40.535282 67.490285 135.946000
2025-11-16 9.974247 13.236380 18.054573 26.235602 41.186504 71.383238 154.953690
2025-11-23 9.509763 12.743006 17.595867 26.017049 41.901371 75.572821 177.402178
2025-11-30 9.091458 12.290059 17.161744 25.787053 42.546636 79.768325 202.924085
2025-12-07 8.713609 11.882168 16.778903 25.625533 43.345424 84.675394 235.759696
2025-12-14 8.328480 11.441315 16.312205 25.267170 43.689022 88.595103 269.095408
2025-12-21 8.228968 11.439135 16.563980 26.257986 47.104927 101.929014 364.727373
2025-12-28 7.933228 11.107274 16.236665 26.111296 47.948390 108.289538 436.051251
2026-01-04 7.672114 10.816549 15.958860 26.031085 48.936041 115.530013 530.933551
2026-01-11 7.498910 10.658599 15.898587 26.375311 51.018437 127.360676 702.798672
2026-01-18 7.261491 10.382427 15.611384 26.226251 51.836466 135.179061 873.886257
2026-01-25 7.016500 10.082098 15.262789 25.916323 52.187420 141.477713 1066.775866
2026-02-01 6.829578 9.870316 15.060902 25.898020 53.326389 151.641606 1410.765145
2026-02-08 6.619268 9.609692 14.754851 25.626980 53.724326 158.948148 1797.101706
2026-02-15 6.429731 9.376518 14.486638 25.415692 54.264942 167.344199 2378.858215